Good morning, summer has finally arrived in Seattle.
Heat, like everything, is best in moderation, and deadly when not. Stay safe those of you enduring climate-fueled heat waves across the globe.
Today, we have the first of a two-part story on the challenges of building new clean-energy infrastructure. This week, we lay out the challenges. Next week, we'll look at solutions.
Local opposition, convoluted permitting processes and backlogged bureaucracies are hamstringing our attempts to tackle climate change.
Cipher scrutinizes the technological transformations we need to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Technologies can’t be transformative if we can’t build them at scale. We’ve covered this topic before, but it’s so massive and important that we’re going to keep coming back to it. This article seeks to put the hurdles in context. Next week, we’ll examine potential solutions.
Though this story focuses on the obstacles to a clean energy transition in the United States, other Western democracies from Europe to Australia face similar challenges.
Numerous factors are at play, but let's boil it down to three big challenges:
Community and stakeholder opposition.
Long and often outdated permitting processes at the local and federal level.
Backlogged submissions from new energy projects connecting to electricity grids.
Let's tackle each in that order, beginning with opposition.
A peer-reviewed study published this month in Energy Policy presents a first-of-its-kind review of the scope and reach of opposition—and it’s alarming.
The study analyzed 53 renewable energy and power line projects proposed between 2008 and 2021 in 28 states that were delayed or blocked and found that nearly half were ultimately canceled. Nearly 80% of those projects had more than one source of opposition.
The most significant opposition was about land value and environmental impact, the study found. Tribal concerns about lack of proper consultation also featured prominently.
Although the focus was on opposition, researchers found permitting and regulatory processes were a core hurdle.
“Our analysis raises a fundamental question about whether the regulatory systems in place in the U.S. are suited to reviewing the rapidly growing number of new utility-scale renewable energy projects,” the study concluded.
Proponents and opponents alike of several projects found conflicting state and federal permitting regulations, which end up feeding opposition.
“Overlapping and inconsistent rules and regulations amplify local controversies that emerge for other reasons,” the study states.
The country’s shift to clean energy is also creating an influx of projects seeking permission to connect to the grid, according to a study by the Energy Department’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL).
This process, called the interconnection queue, has a Rubik’s Cube problem, which is creating yearslong approval delays.
Each time a project applies to connect to the grid, it must conduct studies and cost estimates based partly on existing power plants and those also in the queue.
Those conclusions affect to what degree any given proposal moves forward, so developers often submit several applications to see which version of a given project has the best chance to win approval.
Like scrambling the faces of a Rubik’s Cube, any action on one project in the queue affects the path forward for every other project in line.
Every time applications are submitted, withdrawn or accepted, “that can trigger cascading effects of others in the queue having to do re-studies,” said Joe Rand, an electricity expert at the lab who co-wrote the LBNL study.
The very nature of renewable energy and storage projects—smaller in size and greater in number than coal and natural gas plants—makes this Rubik’s Cube massive.
“The interconnection queue process as it exists today was not designed for this volume of new projects we’re seeing. It was designed around centralized, large-scale fossil-fuel projects. Now, we have thousands of projects.” -Joe Rand, senior scientific engineering associate, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
As a result of these challenges, a troubling inverse trend is underway: renewable electricity is growing while the number of power lines constructed to move it around is slowing.
See our double dose of Data Dives below for more.
To be sure, wind and solar electricity are still growing rapidly in the U.S., indicating that despite the challenges many projects are still being built.
But these interconnected problems are poised to grow as the U.S. seeks to further increase the amount of zero-carbon electricity—all while keeping the lights on with aging grid infrastructure (a related, but distinct, challenge).
Measuring the impact of delays and projects not built is an imperfect exercise, but the effect could be significant.
The Energy Policy study determined that the 53 projects blocked or delayed over the last decade amounted to 9,586 megawatts of potential power capacity in the 28 states examined.
That capacity equals about 10% of the renewable electricity those states would need to produce by 2030 via their renewable electricity mandate laws.
Next week, we’ll delve into potential solutions for this triangle of problems—opposition, permitting and grid delays—including recent actions by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
Importantly, we’ll need more than renewable energy and power lines to fight climate change.
We’ll also need to scale-up other kinds of cleantech infrastructure, including carbon dioxide pipelines and hydrogen plants.
Wind and solar are the most popular forms of clean energy, and power lines are comparatively minor pieces of infrastructure.
How challenging it is to build the popular and easy stuff does not bode well for the less popular, harder stuff.
Biden’s ‘energy whisperer’ balances climate agenda, rising gas prices — The Washington Post Amy’s take: Someone who understands both climate change and the oil and gas industry is pretty helpful—right now and always.
Sunny Spain's green energy plan leaves needy feeling cold — Reuters Anca’s take: A tale of two worlds in the same city. It reminds us that not everyone has the upfront cash needed to invest in solar panels, even if the government will generously subsidize the investment later on. The big question is how to design these schemes in a way that leaves no one behind.
Running Tide is facing scientist departures and growing concerns over seaweed sinking for carbon removal — MIT Technology Review (paywall) Amy’s take: It’s great the CEO engaged as much as he did; we need more of this type of candid conversation if we’re going to successfully fight climate change—even if it’s uncomfortable.
Russia declares gas war on EU — POLITICO Anca’s take: Desperate times call for desperate measures? Several anxious EU countries plan to fire up coal-fired power stations to ensure they can provide the energy their citizens need. Hopefully it will not push the EU too far off course in its efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
Wind and solar power are 'bailing out' Texas amid record heat and energy demand — CNN Amy’s take: Bookmark this quote when the inevitable attacks come on renewable energy if blackouts occur.
The Planet Is Burning. Are Billionaires the Answer? — The New York Times Amy’s take: An important point raised here via billionaire venture capitalist John Doerr: “Consumers will pay a green premium for what they eat and what they put on their face, but for nothing else.” PS: Stop the question mark headlines!
Africa needs $25bn a year of investment to boost energy provision, says IEA chief — Financial Times (paywall) Anca’s take: Let’s let this stat sink in: “About 600mn people in Africa, or 43 percent of the population, lack access to electricity.”
Why we need to recycle clean energy technologies — and how to do it — Canary Media Amy’s take: So glad this is getting attention now, instead of after we’ve created a pile of waste (ahem, looking at you, plastic recycling crowd, whose record is atrocious).
Wild Lightyear 0 Goes 44 Miles on Solar Power Alone, Has 388-Mile EV Range — CNET Amy’s take: Oh, the irony of the ultra-wealthy being the only ones who can afford to power their car for free with the sun.
Climate compensation fight looms over Egypt summit — POLITICO Anca’s take: There has always been disagreement between rich and poor countries over compensation for climate damage, and it doesn’t seem like things are getting any better. Key quote: “The climate emergency is fast becoming a catastrophe. Yet within these walls, the process feels out of step with reality and the pace is definitely too slow.”
Source: Grid Strategies LLC, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Data includes power lines with 345 kilovolts or more of electricity potential, which are considered major transmission lines.
The number of renewable energy projects seeking approval to connect to electricity grids has increased significantly in recent years, yet the number of miles of new power lines constructed over a similar timeline has gone down.
Less than 20% of wind and solar projects that sought regulatory approval to connect to electricity grids reached operation between 2000 and 2016, according to the same LBNL study mentioned above.
The time projects spend waiting for that approval has also increased from about two years in the first decade of this century to nearly four years in the last decade.
The average miles of power lines built annually between 2010 and 2015 was more than 1,700, compared to less than 650 miles between 2016 and 2020, according to federal data analyzed by consulting firm Grid Strategies.
Several factors feed into this, including local opposition and what most experts say is a misappropriation of cost allocations.
New projects often must pay for certain grid updates in their entirety, a cost created by, and a benefit enjoyed by, many projects.
The hurdles pile on top of each other.
The interconnection queue backlogs of wind and solar projects worsen because there aren’t enough power lines to go around.
“That’s a deterrent,” said Caroline Golin, Google’s global head of energy market development and policy. “We want to deploy all this private capital and green the grid, but it’s hurry up and wait.”
AND FINALLY...
Rainbow lines
Forget treasure. We have electricity at the end of this rainbow I recently spotted over Lake Washington in Seattle. We may finally be leaving behind a particularly wet and cool Juneuary here.
Each week, we feature a photo that is somehow related to energy, the thing we all need but don’t notice until it’s expensive or gone. Email your ideas and photos to news@ciphernews.com.
